China's chemical fiber raw material supply conflicts will ease in 2006
Relatively stable production growth, prices are relatively stable, and benefits are basically flat. By the end of the year, the general trend of the industry in 2005 has been set. How will China's chemical fiber industry develop in 2006? The China Chemical Fiber Industry Association predicts that, in the context of the rapid development of the Chinese economy and the rapid growth of the demand for the textile industry, the growth rate of chemical fiber production in 2006 should be about 8%, which can gradually digest the new and advantageous production that has developed rapidly in the previous two years ability. The influencing factors are analyzed as follows:
The growth momentum of the world economy may drop somewhat. The momentum of a new round of economic growth is weakening, and it is predicted that the growth rate will slow down in 2006. The World Bank ’s 2006 Global Economic Outlook annual report predicts that the economic growth rate of developing countries this year will slow from 6.8% last year to 5.9%, and to 2006 to 5.7%. The economic growth rate of high-income economies will also slow down from 3.1% in 2004 to about 2.5% in 2005 and 2006.
China's economic growth will slow down somewhat. The National Bureau of Statistics, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the Development Research Center of the State Council, the National Information Center, and Dongbei University of Finance and Economics have all analyzed the economic development trends in 2006. The agencies generally believe that the economy The operating environment at home and abroad is still more favorable. The forecast value of the economic growth rate in 2005 is 9% -9.5%; in 2006, the national economy will continue to grow rapidly, with an increase of 8.7% -9.2%, a decrease from the previous year.
The conflict between supply and demand of chemical fiber raw materials has gradually eased. According to the forecast of the International Energy Organization, the supply and demand of crude oil will be basically balanced. If there are no emergencies, it is expected that the price of oil will run smoothly in 2006, about 55-65 USD / barrel, which will play an important role in stabilizing the price of chemical fiber raw materials. Therefore, the Chemical Fiber Association predicts that the situation of chemical fiber raw materials in 2006 will gradually ease the contradiction between supply and demand, the price will be relatively stable, and the number of imports will still be large, but the dependence of some raw materials on imports will decline. This is mainly because:
1) PTA supply has increased significantly, and domestic supply and demand conflicts have eased.
There are three sets of PTA devices expected to be put into production in China in 2006: Liaoyang Petrochemical, Shanghai Far Eastern Textile and Ningbo Mitsubishi. In that year, the domestic PTA output was about 6 million tons, and the import volume was 6 million tons. The self-sufficiency rate increased from 44% in 2005 to 50%. In addition, three PTA units were put into production in other countries or regions in 2006.
2) The supply of EG will also increase, but domestic capacity growth is slow. The EG unit to be put into production in China in 2006 is only a set of 350,000 tons of Huizhou Shell, with an estimated output of about 1.2 million tons and an import volume of 4.2 million tons. The self-sufficiency rate remains at 20% or slightly increased in 2005. However, several EG devices in the world will be put into production, mainly in Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East.
3) It is expected that the 70,000 tons of CPL capacity of Nanjing Dongfang and Yueyang Petroleum will be officially put into production in 2006, and the self-sufficiency rate will increase from 30% in 2005 to 43%.
Forecast of main economic indicators In view of the above-mentioned reasons, the Chemical Fiber Association predicts that in 2006, the contradiction in the supply of domestic chemical fiber main raw materials will be further alleviated, the market is basically stable, and the prices of individual varieties may even fall slightly.
Output: The growth rate continued to fall by about 10%, reaching 1.75-107.6 million tons. Imports: continue to decline, expected to be around 1.4 million tons, a decline of about 6%. Market conditions: The prices of chemical fiber products are relatively stable; the increase in market demand is still more than 10%. The prices of chemical fiber raw materials have remained stable, and some raw materials may drop slightly.
Economic benefits: Product sales revenue exceeded 280 billion yuan, a growth rate of 15%, and total industrial output value was 285 billion yuan, a growth rate of 15%. The total profit was basically the same as the 5 billion yuan in 2005.