Increase in cost stability and demand for chemical fiber industry
Since October, the chemical fiber sector has continued to be active. Among them, Xinxiang Chemical Fiber has surged rapidly, rising by 50% in just one month; Huafeng Spandex has pulled Dayang to a record high; other stocks such as Shandong Hailong and Jilin Chemical Fiber also moved. As the overall stock price of the chemical fiber sector is at a low level, it is particularly attractive in an environment where the index is already at a high level. However, what everyone is most concerned about is how long the chemical fiber stock market can last. Is it a pulse market? Or the beginning of a round of intermediate market? How do we choose a leading company in the sector? We might as well analyze the fundamentals of the industry and the company.
Downstream demand for chemical fiber has continued to increase. From January to June 2006, the fixed asset investment in the chemical fiber industry was 7.74 billion yuan, an increase of 17.88% compared with the same period in 2005. Affected by the European and American markets' restrictions on the export trade of China's chemical fiber products, and the impact of cotton prices and international crude oil prices on the increase in manufacturing costs of cotton spinning and chemical fiber products, the growth rate of China's chemical fiber industry in the first half of 2006 compared with the same period last year It was 8.57, 1.06 percentage points.
In the first six months of 2006, China's chemical fiber industry completed 9.635 million tons of output, a year-on-year increase of 16.44%, an increase of 8.43 percentage points faster than the first quarter, and higher than 14.37% in 2005. In terms of different varieties, in addition to the negative growth of polypropylene, the other major varieties have grown rapidly. Among them, viscose fiber has a rapid growth of 30.41%, the highest level in history. From the analysis of market supply and demand, downstream demand for chemical fiber has continued to increase. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the demand for chemical fiber in the textile industry in the first half of 2006 increased by 13% -15%, which is better than the level in the first half of 2005 and the whole year. Upstream prices will gradually stabilize. International crude oil prices are expected to stop falling: International crude oil prices have continued to decline since August, and fell below $ 60 / barrel at the end of September, then rebounded slightly to the level of $ 60 / barrel. It is expected that with the end of the U.S. midterm elections, the continued economic growth of China and India, the Iranian nuclear issue, and the game between OPEC and U.S. interest groups, it is expected that international crude oil prices will stop falling and remain at $ 60. / Barrel up and down.
The price of synthetic fiber raw materials in the chemical fiber industry fluctuated with the rise and fall of international oil prices: Since 2005, under the general situation of international crude oil prices and national macro-control, the chemical fiber industry has faced high raw material prices, a severe international trade situation, the appreciation of RMB exchange rates, Various unfavorable factors such as the continued tightness of coal, electricity, and oil transportation have encountered unprecedented difficulties in the industry. The market price has continued to slump, production growth has fallen rapidly, the operating rate has remained low, and economic benefits have dropped significantly.
Since August 2006, international crude oil prices have fallen sharply. On the basis of a slight decrease in raw material prices, the industry has accelerated structural adjustment, the market situation has gradually improved, and the industry's economic efficiency and operating quality have improved. Affected by the trend of international crude oil prices, the prices of naphtha and ethylene, the main raw materials of chemical fiber products, have also been significantly reduced since September, and the market prices of ethylene glycol and PTA have also continued to decrease. However, acrylonitrile has continued to rise since January 2005, from 12500 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2005 to 16,000 yuan / ton in mid-September 2006. Due to the continued high level of acrylonitrile market prices, downstream demand has been relatively reduced.
Product prices are basically driven by costs. At the end of August 2006, due to the impact of international crude oil prices reaching historical highs, the slice market once rose slightly. However, since September, with the decline in international oil prices and the fall in PTA prices, the market price of polyester chips has gradually decreased.
In the early stage, when the price of polyester staple fiber rose sharply, the increase in pure polyester yarn products was small, and many pure polyester yarn products were in a loss. At the same time, polyester staple fiber has a large social inventory, which further restrains its demand. For example, the current center price of the 329-grade cotton market is about 14,100 yuan / ton, and the price gap with polyester staple fiber is only 700-800 yuan / ton. There is no substitute for polyester staple fiber, and the impact on polyester staple fiber market is particularly large. Therefore, under the influence of various pressures, it is estimated that the market price of polyester staple fiber may still be further reduced.
With the decline in international oil prices and the fall in PTA prices, the market price of polyester filaments has gradually decreased. Recently, after the continuous decline in prices of polyester filaments, and the situation of polyester raw materials gradually stopped the decline, the market price of polyester filaments has gradually stabilized.
From a long-term perspective, the market price of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, or polyester fiber is basically determined by cost, and market demand has a relatively small impact on its price. Therefore, the trend of international oil prices in the next stage will directly determine the price trend of polyester chips.
The booming period of the industry is about. In response to the reversal of the chemical fiber industry since the fourth quarter of 2004, some chemical experts in China and the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association summarized the change in the growth rate of the total industrial output value of the entire chemical fiber industry from 1975 to 2004. It is found that there is a clear periodicity in the operation of China's chemical fiber industry. China Chemical Fiber Industry Association's analysis of the operation of the chemical fiber industry since 2005 shows that China's chemical fiber industry has entered the trough period of the ninth development cycle since 1975. We believe that after the trough period, the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2008 is expected to usher in the booming period of the chemical fiber industry.
In the first half of 2006, China's chemical fiber industry realized a profit of 2.857 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.5%, which reversed the decline of 20.6% in the first quarter. The loss of loss-making companies also decreased by 18.71%, and the industry-wide loss was 23.84%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.95. The state-owned and state-holding enterprises realized a profit of 442 million yuan, a significant increase of 135.1%, while the overall loss in the first quarter was 71 million yuan.
In terms of different industries, the polyester industry and the viscose industry performed well, achieving profits of 15.19%, an increase of 2.18 times and 32.11%, respectively, accounting for 53.2% and 35.14% of the entire industry; the profit of the nylon industry was basically the same as that of the first half of last year. Acrylic The industry continued to lose 254 million yuan as a whole, but only lost 45 million yuan in the second quarter. Losses in the four major industries have also been significantly reduced.
However, on the whole, although the chemical fiber industry is still in an adjustment period, the development prospect is relatively optimistic. The chemical fiber industry will maintain a steady growth situation from the end of 2006 to the beginning of 2007. The annual growth rate of chemical fiber output is expected to be about 12%. The reasonable growth rate of fixed asset investment should be controlled below 12%. Import volume will reach 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 8% year-on-year. Export volume is expected to exceed 1 million tons. The economic benefits of the industry are expected to increase profits by 3% -5% year-on-year, and the quality of industry operations will continue to improve.
Viscose fiber price is bullish. Viscose fiber belongs to regenerated cellulose fiber. Its appearance is similar to silk. It has good hygroscopicity, good feel and good market prospect. Recently, the market prices of cotton pulp and chemical fiber wood pulp, which are upstream raw materials of viscose fiber, have been relatively stable, and cotton pulp factories are more willing to rise. Since September, as some domestic cotton pulp enterprises are still under maintenance, the market demand has increased, resulting in a recent substantial increase in the price of viscose fibers by 500-600 yuan / ton. At the same time, some manufacturers such as: Tongxiang Zhonghui, Zibo Hualong Chemical Fiber, Jilin Chemical Fiber, Nanjing Chemical Fiber, Hubei Chemical Fiber, Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, Baoding Swan, etc. all plan to raise the factory price again by 500-600 yuan / ton in the near future.
In August, the Chinese textile industry entered a traditional production season. Demand for raw materials pushed up the price of viscose fibers, especially under the downstream "buy up, not buy down" mentality. The purchase volume of downstream companies further increased, resulting in some domestic There is a tight supply situation in the market for viscose staple fibers. Due to the current low stocks of major manufacturers, downstream demand is still relatively strong. It is expected that the market price of viscose filament yarns may still rise further in the next stage. Focus on viscose fiber and spandex manufacturers with good market prospects, such as Huafeng Spandex, Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, and Jiangnan High Fiber.
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